Joseph Vijay had earlier taken oath as Chief Minister on May 10, forming a Council of Ministers with nine members after days of intense political negotiations and shifting alliances. The Congress, with five MLAs, along with support from two MLAs each from the Left parties, the VCK and the IUML, provided the numerical backing required for the TVK-led formation to cross the majority mark of 118 in the 234-member Assembly.
During the Cabinet expansion held on Thursday, attention sharply turned to the absence of the VCK led by Thol Thirumavalavan and the IUML, both of which continue to extend support to the government but have not yet formally joined the Council of Ministers. According to sources, both parties have been assured one Cabinet berth each, but they have not yet named their ministerial representatives, resulting in their absence from the expansion exercise. It has also been indicated that both parties will be inducted into the government at a later stage.
Under constitutional provisions, the Chief Minister can appoint up to 35 ministers, representing 15 percent of the total strength of 234 members. With the latest expansion, 32 ministerial positions have been filled, leaving three posts vacant as a conciliatory gesture toward the pending allies.
Political observers note that both VCK and IUML, which maintain historical proximity with the MK Stalin-led DMK, are adopting a cautious approach before formally committing to the Vijay Cabinet. Their hesitation is seen as a strategic wait-and-watch approach to evaluate the stability and administrative performance of the new government before making a decisive political shift.
The delay is also being viewed through the lens of political bargaining, with both parties potentially seeking stronger portfolios for their nominees. During the post-election negotiations, there were even unverified political discussions suggesting a possible alignment between long-standing rivals DMK and AIADMK to form a government with VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan as Chief Minister. Although the VCK officially denied such claims, speculation regarding a broader Dravidian political realignment continued to circulate, including talk of Thirumavalavan being considered for the post of Deputy Chief Minister.
Adding further complexity to the political landscape, the split within the AIADMK led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami has provided critical support to the TVK-led government. A group of 25 AIADMK MLAs under the leadership of CV Shanmugam reportedly broke ranks and supported the government during the floor test. In response, Palaniswami expelled the rebel legislators from party positions, leaving their legal and political status to be determined by the Speaker of the Assembly.
This internal fragmentation within the opposition has significantly strengthened the TVK government’s position, but it also influences the calculations of VCK and IUML, who are weighing the long-term implications of formally aligning with the ruling coalition. Political analysts suggest that if the rebel AIADMK faction further consolidates its support with the government, it could reduce the leverage currently held by smaller allies.
While Left parties have already clarified their position of external support, the IUML and VCK continue to deliberate their entry into the Cabinet. The political environment remains fluid, with alliances being tested, loyalties reassessed, and negotiations continuing behind the scenes. The eventual decision of these parties is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the stability and direction of the Joseph Vijay-led government in the coming months.
The unfolding developments underscore a deeply strategic phase in Tamil Nadu politics, where alliance arithmetic, cabinet representation, and shifting loyalties are collectively defining the future trajectory of governance under a narrowly balanced mandate.
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